ContinU Conference Presentation

ContinU Sixth Form Conference at Haybridge High School, Hagley, Worcs

(including delegations from Baxter College, Kidderminster; Bewdley High School; Hagley RC High School; King Charles 1 High School, Kidderminster; Stourport High School; Wolverley CE High School)

Wednesday 9th April 2008

Notes on Conflict, Poverty and Development by Dr Paul Jackson, Director of the International Development Department, University of Birmingham

(the following is a lightly edited version of the Powerpoint presentation by Dr Jackson based on his work in Sierra Leone. This was a contribution to the overall theme of this series of sixth form conferences organised by BEACONS: ‘How to Make Poverty History’)

Introduction

Linkages between the Human Development Index (HDI) and conflict

Sierra Leone as a case study

Human Development and Conflict

War and HD are closely linked in a two-way vicious cycle:

War is a major threat to HD; 9 out of 10 of the worst HDI countries have been or are at war
Lack of HD is an important cause of war

Anyone concerned with HD must

Consider policies DURING conflict
Consider policies towards prevention of conflict

Research shows that countries with a high level of dependence on commodity exports (eg timber, minerals) are at high risk of having conflict
Countries with high levels of secondary school education have a lower risk of conflict
From 1980-2004 low income countries with a per capita income of less that $2000 experienced conflicts causing deaths of more than 1000 people once in every five years
When per capita income increased to between $2000 and $4000 this fell to once every eight years
When this was more than $4000 this fell to once every thirty-three years

The Conflict Trap:
Civil conflict has a huge impact on infrastructure, economic activity, food production, social capital and investment.
Also civil costs: lost entitlements including worsening provision of basic needs, goods and services - doctors, nurses, education and food availability; split families; orphans and separated children; refugees; psychological trauma.
When violence stops it takes a long time to recover.
National budgets are often diverted to military spending.
The impact of conflict lingers, making it likely that conflict will happen again - this is what is known as ‘The conflict trap’.

Poverty and the Conflict Trap

The average per capita income of conflict countries is significantly lower than that of developing countries as a whole.
Nine of the ten countries at the bottom of the HDI have experienced conflict since 1990.
More than half of the world’s conflicts since 1990 have taken place in low-income countries.
40% of current world conflicts happen in Africa, including several of the most bloody.

What are the key features of conflict-prone states?

Poor natural resource management.
Porous borders.
Decline/stagnation in economy.
Horizontal inequality - economic AND political.
High poverty.
Low social expenditure.
History of conflict.
Low state resources and weak governments.

What does it mean to be 177th out of 177 in the HDI?

Sierra Leone is bottom of the HDI.
Its life expectancy is about 41.
It has a literacy rate of about 35% (including an adult illiteracy rate of 65%) and around 44% of its children go to school.
43% of its people don’t have access to clean water.
In terms of purchasing power parity it has a per capita income of $800.
Yet Sierra Leone is actually a success!

Background

An archetypal country that is poor but shouldn’t be.
About 50% of government revenue comes from donors and around 95% of GDP is private consumption. About 50% is food and 45% fuel - extremely dependent with no industry.
Resources include Freetown port, rutile, gold and diamonds.
Diamond X rose from about $25m in 2001 to $140m in 2005 officially, but unofficial figures are much higher (about four times higher).

The War

RUF formed by Foday Sankoh in 1991.
Regional dimension around Mano River Basin.
By 1996 the RUF controlled most of the countryside and the government hired Executive Outcomes.
This was very successful and by end of 1996 peace talks led to withdrawal of EO - but…
RUF reanimated and overran country by 2000.
UK intervened and restored order - UNAMSIL maintained peace until this year.

What caused the war?
Poverty
Politics
Centralisation
Alienation and social exclusion
Corruption

Sierra Leone and Diamonds

Why are diamonds a smuggler’s best friend?
Chiefs, Lebanese trading networks, corrupt regulators.
Problem is that Ministry of Minerals doesn’t regulate and several industrial producers act under locally regulated licenses.
Around $2.5m should have gone back into diamond bearing communities since 2001 under the 3% government levy, but almost none has.
An average miner’s wage is 50 cents a day (i.e. $1/2) plus two cups of rice.

So what is the situation like now?

Stable to the extent that SL was able to hold peaceful elections in July 2007.
Stable, democratic government with no political involvement from the army. No rebel movement.
Reduced (but still damaging) corruption.
BUT - income from diamonds is increasing and going into Government.

What happened?

UNAMSIL and UK intervention in 2001/2 brought military stability.
UK IMATT team in place as ‘advisers’ to RSLAF.
Security sector reform - army, police and intelligence services build along with civil society.
Intervention broke the initial conflict trap.

Big questions in Sierra Leone

Sustainability?
Imperialism?
Where is everybody? IDPs and refugees.
Reintegration of fighters.
Corruption and good government.
What will investors invest in?